Mark Zandi, the chief economist for Moody’s Analytics, wrote on social media that he was raising his odds for a recession to 40 percent from 15 percent at the beginning of 2025. Although he said the overall recession risk is low, he called the most recent economic data “disconcerting” and pointed to the shifting policy from the White House.
“The intensifying trade war and DOGE cuts are behind all this and with last week’s announcement of big tariff increases on vehicle imports and the coming reciprocal tariffs, things are sure to get worse,” he said.
Zandi told ABC News Monday that investors are nervous after Trump made it clear he has no intention of backing down from announcing his planned tariffs for this week. “That’s the fodder for an economic downturn. Obviously, that’s not good for business. That’s not good for profits. That’s not good for stock prices,” Zandi said.
He called Trump’s pending auto tariffs a “big negative” for consumers with car prices likely to rise as a result, but he said automobile dealers will also have to contend with the tax. “Even though the domestic automakers may grab market share — because the tariffs are harder on countries that are exporting to the U.S. — the fact is that we’re going to sell, overall, fewer cars. That means the folks at auto dealerships are going to have less cars to sell, and that’s going to mean less jobs,” he said.
