A few prominent MAGA social media influencers have fueled quite a bit of talk about a “MAGA revolt” against Trump’s decision to undertake a regime change war in Iran. But the available polling shows nothing of the kind. A February 28-March 1 survey from CNN showed that the war is fairly unpopular generally. But Republicans, and particularly MAGA Republicans, are the big exception:
MAGA Republicans are 30 points more likely than non-MAGA Republicans to say they strongly approve of the decision to take military action, 34 points likelier to say it will reduce the threat Iran poses to the US and nearly 50 points more likely to say they have a great deal of trust in Trump to make the right decisions about US use of force in Iran.
The initial support for military action among Trump’s base stands in contrast to opinions among the larger public.
More recently, an Economist-YouGov survey taken between February 27 and March 2 showed the exact same dynamic. Asked if they favored “military force to overthrow the government of Iran”:
• 32 percent of Americans said they were in support, 45 percent opposed, and 23 percent were not sure.
• Among Independents: 23 percent supported the war, 50 percent opposed, and 28 percent were not sure.
• 64 percent of Republicans supported the war, 15 percent opposed, and 21 percent were not sure.
• And among self-identified MAGA supporters: 75 percent supported the war, 10 percent opposed and 15 percent were not sure. In this last category, 47 percent strongly support the war.
This isn’t surprising if you think about it. MAGA folk inherently trust the president, and so they tend to accept his dubious claims that Iran’s nuclear or missile programs threatened the United States directly and imminently. For them it’s an America First war. But not so much for the majority of Americans who don’t take Trump’s word as gospel truth.
