The remains of the Shajarat al-Tayyiba Primary School in the city of Minab, Iran, on March 31, 2026.
Photo: Hamid Vakili/Anadolu/Getty Images
The Trump administration finally has a tentative peace agreement with Iran. If it sticks, it could not possibly come at a more urgent time in terms of the Republican Party’s midterm-election needs. Donald Trump’s job-approval numbers have been especially poor ever since he started the war with Iran, in no small part because the highly unpopular conflict has exacerbated the living-cost concerns that were already depressing his popularity. For months, most Republicans have been desperate for Trump to put aside various distractions (including his no-win war) and pivot to a focus on affordability. Perhaps now the president can get onboard. But will he? And even if he does, is it too late to boost the GOP’s midterm prospects?
On this latter question, the key is probably whether an end (temporary or long-lasting) to war in and around the Strait of Hormuz reversed the gasoline-price spiral that became the abrasive daily reminder of Trump’s indifference to living costs. And that’s not entirely clear, as Politico notes:
Gas prices have been falling since their pre–Memorial Day peak of $4.56 per gallon in anticipation of a deal to end the war, now hovering just above $4 a gallon. A reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could accelerate that trend though it could take months, as the strait is freed of mines, tankers start the slow work of picking up oil shipments and Middle Eastern countries work to restore oil and gas fields hit by Iranian missiles.
And even if prices ease, some Republicans, including those close to the White House, fear that voter perceptions of a sour economy are already baked in and irreversible before the midterms. They note that President Donald Trump and the GOP were already grappling with affordability concerns before the war began at the end of February — and that merely returning to the status quo isn’t enough, particularly given the central role the economy plays in driving voter behavior at the polls.
Yes, part of Trump’s problem is that in 2024 he promised not just relief from inflation but lower living costs in absolute terms. In a very real sense, his Make America Great Again brand had come to mean making the pre-pandemic economy, with which he was fortuitously associated, magically reappear. And that’s a very tall order, particularly in the limited time left before the midterms.
Even if it’s not too late for Trump to actually reduce living costs, he has to get with the program; affordability must be his focus, day and night. And that could be a heavy lift. It’s not as though the Iran war has been his only or even his principal distraction. He’s been consumed with vanity projects like the White House ballroom, the “anti-weaponization” slush fund, and the UFC fight on the White House grounds. He’s spent more time recently ranting about imaginary voter fraud than boasting about his peace efforts; more time demanding congressional passage of his wildly divisive SAVE America Act than persuading Congress to adopt his vision for the Middle East. And even if congressional Republicans craft a new party-line budget reconciliation bill that ostensibly addresses affordability concerns, the odds seem low that Trump will let them do so without adding in poison pills that have nothing to do with the economy at all.
Early voting for the midterms begins just three months from now. Merits aside, you have a Democratic Party that, for all its problems, really is laser-focused on addressing affordability concerns. And you have another party that is all over the place, led by a president who on any given day may be far more focused on the 2020 election than the ones happening in November. From a purely political point of view, it was clearly a mistake for Trump to devote so much of this crucial year to a war of choice with no discernible payoff other than ending the carnage he initiated. Pivoting from the Iran war to anything else prior to the midterms will be difficult. And sticking the landing on affordability — as opposed to Trump’s eternal agenda of self-glorification, grievances, and conspiracy theories — will require acrobatic skills this now-80-year-old politician just doesn’t possess.
