Photo-Illustration: Cornyn Lonestar Victory Fund
In many years of observing politics, I’ve seen a lot of nasty, negative ads between primary opponents who belong to the same party. But for sheer volume of vitriol, the latest John Cornyn ad against Ken Paxton, his opponent in the Texas GOP Senate primary, is hard to top:
As Inside Elections reporter Jacob Rubashkin points out, this wildly negative ad is co-sponsored by the Senate Republican Campaign Committee, whose fundamental purpose is to maintain GOP control of the upper chamber. Cornyn’s seat is one that could very well become the key to a Democratic takeover of the Senate, which was thought to be highly improbable just months ago. So the very people running this ad calling Paxton a despicable family-wrecking, corrupt, and LGBTQ-loving piece of garbage may soon be backing his general-election candidacy to the absolute hilt. Paxton is the favorite in a toxic contest that will almost certainly go to a May runoff, in which his brand of fierce MAGA conservatives are likely to dominate turnout.
Democrats have their own issues in this race: U.S. representative Jasmine Crockett and state legislator James Talarico are locked in a close and increasingly fractious primary of their own. But at least Democrats are very likely to know the identity of their Senate nominee six days from now (barring a virtual tie that allows a minor candidate’s vote to deny either major candidate a majority). They will have many months to heal their divisions as Cornyn and Paxton drag each other to the bottom of the sea like sharks taking down their prey.
It’s unclear how effective the savage (and lavishly funded) attacks by Cornyn and his D.C. friends will be in eroding or eliminating Paxton’s long-standing lead in this race. The intensely combative attorney general’s many ethics issues involving both his personal life and his finances are very well known. Republican voters may have already discounted them, much like Donald Trump’s many vices, as acceptable considering his longtime service to right-wing causes like stamping out abortion and blowing up public education in favor of private (and often religious) schools.
The Texas GOP is in the midst of an ideological revolution against a “Republican Establishment” typified by Cornyn. In 2024 Paxton, along with Texas governor Greg Abbott and Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick, led a high-profile primary purge of Republican legislators who resisted a school-voucher push and voted to impeach Paxton on corruption grounds (he was acquitted by the Texas Senate). To put it simply, the Texas party is racing to the right at an amazing pace, and the four-term incumbent simply hasn’t been able to keep up. Worse yet, Cornyn looks and sounds like a stereotypical senator, making him a “swamp” creature in the eyes of Washington-hating Texas Republicans (his self-depiction in his latest ad as a cowboy-hat-wearing “Texas Workhouse” probably inspires as much derision as admiration).
Team Cornyn had hoped his bacon might be saved by a Trump endorsement, but the president chose to endorse all three major candidates in the race (Cornyn, Paxton, and U.S. representative Wesley Hunt), a familiar tactic that operates as a permission slip for MAGA diehards in Texas to follow their own preferences. Any way the wind blows, the GOP is going to have a major restoration project come May to bring supporters of either the empty-suit RINO Cornyn or the adulterous “Crooked Ken” back into the party corral during what could be a very difficult midterm election for the party.
