• This past Wednesday, Israel attacked Iran’s biggest natural-gas facility and Iran retaliated against Qatar’s biggest natural-gas facility, prompting a global energy panic. Though Israel reportedly coordinated the attack with the U.S., President Trump announced that Israel had acted alone and would not attack any more energy targets.
• On Friday, Trump said that he did not want a cease-fire and announced that the U.S. might soon “wind down” its military operations, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. was temporarily lifting sanctions on $14 billion worth of Iranian oil.
• On Saturday night, Trump announced on social media that unless Iran opened the Strait of Hormuz, the U.S. “will hit and obliterate” Iran’s “various POWER PLANTS, STARTING WITH THE BIGGEST ONE FIRST.!”
Iran responded that if its energy infrastructure was attacked, it would retaliate against allied energy infrastructure and desalinization plants. Energy-market analysts got super-nervous.
• On Monday morning, shortly before the markets opened, Trump announced on Truth Social that:
[The U.S. and Iran] HAVE HAD, OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS, VERY GOOD AND PRODUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS REGARDING A COMPLETE AND TOTAL RESOLUTION OF OUR HOSTILITIES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. BASED ON THE TENOR AND TONE OF THESE IN DEPTH, DETAILED, AND CONSTRUCTIVE CONVERSATIONS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, I HAVE INSTRUCTED THE DEPARTMENT OF WAR TO POSTPONE ANY AND ALL MILITARY STRIKES AGAINST IRANIAN POWER PLANTS AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE FOR A FIVE DAY PERIOD, SUBJECT TO THE SUCCESS OF THE ONGOING MEETINGS AND DISCUSSIONS.
In other words, the pending attack (and likely counterattack) would be postponed until the end of the business week.
• The markets responded favorably to Trump’s message, with the price of oil dropping and the stock market rising.
• Iran’s foreign ministry said that there had been no negotiations and said Trump had simply backed down from his threat.
