We now have a lot of new claims from Trump, who seems to be performing a victory lap today, albeit with some odd flourishes.
We have statements from Iranian officials that largely restate things they have said before about the Strait of Hormuz being “open” but still very much under their control.
We have reporting that U.S. officials seem fairly confident that the U.S. and Iran will agree to some kind of memorandum of understanding which contains a framework for a future deal that extends the cease-fire and hopefully ends the war. It appears to focus on what happens to Iran’s nuclear material and enrichment program, in exchange for some form of money, like unblocking Iran’s access to funds, a.k.a. sanctions relief. That is, put another way, a one-sided account of what is happening behind the scenes, which doesn’t mean it’s not accurate, but it’s information U.S. officials want out there. (It is also basically the same framework of Obama’s JCPOA deal, which Trump said was terrible and ultimately tore up.)
It’s certainly possible that Iran has been pressured to give up its leverage and capitulate to U.S. demands, but that doesn’t line up with virtually anything else the regime has done throughout this war. Also, Iran has been mostly acting strategically, and Trump and the U.S. have not.
