It will likely be a while before the investigations into the sources of the L.A. County wildfires are concluded, but there is at least some evidence suggesting the Palisades fire may have started with a rekindling of a fire which began just after midnight on New Year’s Day near the same spot where videos show the Palisades fire broke out on January 7.
The San Francisco Chronicle reports that the Lachman Fire — which is believed to have been started by fireworks — was reported early New Year’s Day, then fully contained by firefighters within hours, ultimately burning 8 acres. It’s possible that embers from the fire were still smoldering undetected, even though that is something firefighters work to prevent when they extinguish a wildfire, and then reemerged thanks to fire-favorable winds six days later:
“Yes, without a doubt,” Terry Taylor, a retired wildland fire investigator who now works as an instructor, said of the possibility. “These sorts of fuels, especially when they are dry, the fire goes deep down into the root structure, so you may not get it out even if you dump water on it.”
Official government reports and neighbors’ observations put both fires’ origins in the same brushy hillside between the Summit neighborhood of Pacific Palisades and a trail running behind the neighborhood in Topanga State Park. …
“An 8-acre fire in that fuel type is also consistent with potential re-kindle,” continued [Alan] Carlson, who headed Cal Fire’s Northern Region law enforcement division. “Gusty winds are consistent with hot materials blowing across control lines.”
Carlson also agreed with Taylor that smoldering embers, under the right conditions, could have rekindled even after six days.
Further, the morning report of fire on Jan. 7 is also consistent with a rekindle, he added.“During the night it is less likely to have been observed, could have smoldered for an extended period of time before going to flame as the winds picked up,” Carlson said.
On Sunday, the Washington Post reported that according to witness reports and its own visual analysis, the two fires did seem to overlap:
The Post identified the burn scar of the New Year’s Eve fire using false-color satellite imagery taken before and after the blaze. The technique tracks changes to vegetation in satellite imagery. Healthy plant cover appears red, while the scorched ground appears blue to brown.
In addition, satellite imagery taken Tuesday at 10:45 a.m., about 20 minutes after videos show the Palisades Fire began, indicates that the origin of the smoke overlapped with the burn scar from the New Year’s Eve fire. Smoke extends in the direction of the wind, to the south, away from the previously burned area.
The Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives is investigating the cause of the Palisades fire, and an ATF representative told the Chronicle that it was too early for such determinations or theorizing.